Pending Home Sales Up for Three Months in a Row
RISMEDIA, June 2, 2009-Record low mortgage interest rates boosted pending home sales for the third consecutive month, with some benefit now from the first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in April, rose 6.7% to 90.3 from a reading of 84.6 in March, and is 3.2% above April 2008 when it was 87.5.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said buyers are responding to very favorable market conditions. “Housing affordability conditions have been at historic highs, but now the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit is beginning to impact the market,” he said. “Since first-time buyers must finalize their purchase by November 30 to get the credit, we expect greater activity in the months ahead, and that should spark more sales by repeat buyers.”
The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast shot up 32.6% to 78.9 in April and is 0.8% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose 9.8% to 90.4 and is 11.1% above April 2008. The index in the South slipped 0.2% to 93.0 in April but is 3.5% higher than a year ago. In the West the index rose 1.8% to 94.8 but is 2.9% below April 2008.
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said there are numerous buyer assistance programs around the country. “Some states are offering bridge loans that allow first-time buyers to use the tax credit for downpayment and closing costs, but there are many other local government and nonprofit programs available to buyers, depending on location,” he said.
“Just last week, HUD announced that qualifying buyers can use the tax credit for closing costs on FHA loans, to buy down the interest rate or make a larger downpayment. Buyers who are wondering about their options should contact a Realtor®, who can advise consumers on the housing assistance programs and resources available in a given area.”
NAR’s Housing Affordability Index is in record territory. The affordability index rose to 174.8 in April from an upwardly revised 171.9 in March, and was the second highest monthly reading on record after peaking at 176.9 in January of this year. The HAI is a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, which examines the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income; tracking began in 1970.
A median-income family, earning $60,900, could afford a home costing $296,800 in April with a 20% downpayment, assuming 25% of gross income is devoted to mortgage principal and interest. Affordability conditions for first-time buyers with the same income and small downpayments are roughly 80% of that amount. The affordable price was well above the median existing single-family home price in April, which was $169,800.
Yun cautions that the reporting sample for pending home sales is smaller than that of existing-home sales, so it is subject to greater variability. “In addition, the relationship between contracts on pending home sales and closings on existing-home sales is taking longer than in the past for several reasons,” he said. “Mortgage processing time has increased, it is taking many months to close on those homes requiring short sales with lender approval, and some sales are falling through at the last moment.”
The total number of existing-home sales is expected to improve but with dramatic local market variation in the timing of recovery. “The market has already bottomed in some areas, but this is an unusual housing cycle with some areas improving rapidly while others languish or decline,” Yun said.
For more information, visit http://www.realtor.org.
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Thursday, June 4, 2009
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
From the Midwest to the Pacific, job seekers are heading to Texas
From the Midwest to the Pacific, job seekers are heading to Texas
'If you had to ride out this downturn, there is no better place than Texas. The declines here have been nothing compared to other states.’
By STEVE CAMPBELL
sfcampbell@star-telegram.com
Across the nation, unemployment is sky-high, the housing market is sucking wind and recessionary fears have frozen Americans in place.
Just don’t tell that to a stream of new residents who are "voting with their feet" that Texas is the safest place to ride out the storm and the place to be when the economy recovers.
Even in the midst of a recession, economists, demographers and relocation experts believe the Lone Star State is on the cusp of becoming The New California.
Or maybe it already is.
For people seeking economic opportunity, Texas is becoming what California has been since the Great Depression, says Los Angeles urbanist and author Joel Kotkin. Texas recently "ran the table" in a recent list of "Best Cities for Jobs" prepared by Kotkin for New Geography and Forbes. Austin, Houston, San Antonio, Fort Worth and Dallas were ranked as the top five large metro areas in the country to find a job. If that weren’t enough to get the moving van loaded, McAllen and Odessa top the mid-sized and small city categories, respectively. Among 333 metropolitan areas, Texas has a remarkable 20 in the top 100.
Relocation surveys show that Texas remains a top destination for people leaving other states. Its automobile registrations continue to climb, and the Texas housing market has avoided the double-digit declines other fast-growing states have seen. While the unemployment rate has risen in Texas, it’s nowhere near as high as most of the country, underscoring the state’s economic resiliency even as the downturn deals out its lumps.
Kotkin, a professor at Chapman University in Orange, Calif., who analyzed U.S. Labor Department statistics for his report, says Texas’ dominance at the top of the jobs list is unprecedented.
"Part of it is a function of the economic collapse of Florida, Phoenix and California. The collapse is still important in Texas, but Texas has had more balanced growth and that’s more sustainable," he said in a telephone interview while navigating an L.A. freeway.
"Part is the nature of Texas: People don’t move there for climate and scenery," Kotkin said. "They move to Texas for jobs and affordable housing. People make economic decisions to go to these places. They don’t go for perfect weather where you can surf one day and ski the next."
Selling "everything but the deer head" and leaving the Detroit area for Texas was simple math for Rodger Benton after Hewlett Packard laid him off.
"It was pretty much a no-brainer to make the move," he said. "The unemployment rate in Michigan is really high. Things are really tough up there. There’s just more opportunity here."
Jobs beget growth
Steve Murdock, who was the Texas state demographer for 25 years and director of the U.S. Census Bureau during the last year of the George W. Bush administration, says jobs attract new residents, and Texas has been driving fast for several years.
"Very few of us say, 'I think I’ll go there because there are not as many " he said. jobs and they pay less,’
Murdock, now a sociology professor at Rice University, says Texas’ growth in the last decade has "been simply phenomenal."
According to the latest Census figures released in March, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington added 146,500 people between July 2007 and July 2008 — more than any metropolitan area in the nation. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown added 130,000 for the No. 2 spot, and Texas had 10 of the top 25 counties with the biggest numerical gains.
Texas has lost jobs in the recession, with the unemployment rate at 6.7 percent in March, the highest mark since January 2004, according to the Texas Workforce Commission.
But that still looks good compared with Michigan (12.6 percent unemployment), Oregon (12.1), South Carolina (11.4), California (11.2) or North Carolina (10.4).
"If you had to ride out this downturn, there is no better place than Texas. The declines here have been nothing compared to other states," said Richard Froeshle, deputy director of Texas Workforce Commission.
Moving out
As the economy has soured, many people are moving to Texas for a new start.
In 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, 14.3 percent of the people leaving the once Golden State were bound for the Lone Star State, according to Relocation.com, which tracks moving trends. Other states with sizable outflows to Texas included Florida (7.9 percent), Illinois (4.7), Michigan (4.6) and New York (4.3).
Another indicator of moving patterns is U-Haul truck rentals.
To rent a 26-foot moving truck today from Los Angeles to Fort Worth would cost $2,141. Renting that truck for a Fort Worth-to-L.A. run would only cost $557. Nearly the same prices apply for moves from Detroit to Fort Worth and vice versa.
That means far more people are moving to Texas than going in the other direction, a U-Haul employee in Fort Worth said.
Julie and William Taylor of Flower Mound made that jump just before California’s housing bubble burst.
Fed up with William’s three-hour round-trip commute and the state’s declining economy, they unloaded their home in Santa Clarita in 2006 after it had doubled 1/2 years."We thought, 'We better do it now while we can.’ I had in value in 3 never even come to Texas, but we knew there were jobs here," said Julie, a stay-at-home mom with two small children. "We knew it was going to be easier for my husband to find a job [in the transportation industry]. And it was true. We feel so blessed to have gotten out when we did."
'The place to go’
Tory Gattis, who runs a software company and writes Houston Strategies, an urban issues blog, is convinced that Texas will be the "focal point" of the nation’s next historic migration trend.
"During the Dust Bowl, during the Great Depression, California was the place to go. Texas is the place to go now," Gattis said. "Sure, we are clearly losing some jobs but people are still moving here. I can see it anecdotally in the license plates around town. I see a lot of Michigan plates, California license plates, I see them from all over."
That’s playing out across the state, according to the Texas Department of Transportation, which tracks motor vehicle registrations.
In 2000, there were 17,962,300 registered vehicles in Texas and that number soared more than 3 million to 21,185,173 by the end of last year, the department reports.
"Vehicle registrations continue to climb by the hundreds of thousands in Texas despite a decline in vehicle sales," department spokeswoman Kim Sue Lia Perkes said. "This may be one indicator that Texas continues to experience a steady stream of transplants from other states despite the national economic downturn."
John McLendon sees the economy where all that rubber meets the road.
No Vacancy signs were the norm at his Oak Creek RV Park near Weatherford for years as migratory workers flocked to the drilling fields of the Barnett Shale, he said. Most of them cleared out late last year, when natural gas prices cratered and companies mothballed rigs.
Now he’s seeing a different trend. People from states hit hard by the recession are coming here in search of jobs. "I’ve seen some from Florida, Utah, Colorado, Montana — they’re from everywhere," McLendon said.
Jo Ann Royer, director of relocations for Williams & Trew real estate, say inquiries about moving to Fort Worth are coming from across the country.
"We’re seeing the whole spectrum of medical industry employees. They are coming from everywhere because the hospitals here are expanding," Royer said. "We’ve had, believe it or not in this economy, banking personnel coming in because there is a new bank on every corner in Fort Worth."
'Zone of sanity’
Jim Gaines, a research economist at Texas A&M University, says that the recession has slowed overall growth but that there are good reasons why people continue to come to Texas.
"Why do people move? Generally, jobs," Gaines said. "Right now, Texas will probably be the only state in the Union that reports more jobs than the year before — by a total of close to 154,000 [in 2008]."Those numbers will be reduced this year. But if you are an entrepreneur or want to start a business, this is the best place to do it because of the pro-business attitude of the state."
Eventually, when distressed housing markets across the country stabilize, Gaines predicts that skittish homeowners will be weighing their options. In those places, "as soon as you can finally sell, you’re going to get the hell out of Dodge," Gaines said.
Jason Saving, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, also believes that Texas has some "fundamental advantages" that are spurring growth, even in a recession.
First is a "very favorable business climate," and second is affordable real estate.
"These things make the state attractive to businesses and residents alike," Saving said. "I think that’s why, if you look at the migration data within the U.S., that you see so many people moving from other states to Texas."
Gattis says Texas’ cost of living is a key to its attractiveness.
"It’s not everything," he said, "but when you have more discretionary income you can buy a better house, a better car, you can spend it at restaurants. That’s income that leads to a better quality of life. "
Texas State Demographer Karl Eschbach says in tough times, people "move to where they think they can survive."
"You might move back home where you have family and a support network, or you move to where you can get a job," Eschbach said. "If I’d left Texas and then lost my job, I would be back in a quarter-second."
Mark Lowther moved fast when that happened to him.
The Texas native was a marketing manager in Seattle for Washington Mutual, the failed savings and loan which was bought by JPMorgan Chase.
His job ended May 1, and he and his wife, Michelle, a disaster contingency consultant, "jumped" at the chance to come to Fort Worth so he could join Southwest Bank as a senior vice president and marketing director.
"The real estate market here is stronger and more affordable," Mather said as movers were unloading the couple’s belongings. "You can buy a comparable house here for close to half the price what you can get on the West Coast."
Kotkin, the L.A. author, says Texas is benefitting by being in what he calls "the zone of sanity," a swath of the nation’s midsection where housing prices stayed stable.
The twin lures of jobs and affordable housing are important to young professionals planning to raise a family or start a business, he said.
That’s what Lance Marshall and Elizabeth Peirce have in mind. The 25-year-old high school sweethearts from North Texas moved to Chicago in 2005 to pursue careers after graduating from college.
Marshall managed a specialty wine store and Peirce worked for a nonprofit and then turned to waiting tables before working as a media coordinator for a fashion boutique.
"I was underemployed and I never stopped looking for a job," Peirce said. "In Chicago, the competition was incredibly fierce and the economy wasn’t very good and then it really declined last year."
When they got engaged, coming back home looked like the safe bet. In February, they moved in with her parents in Grapevine, which has "been fun and mortifying at the same time," she said.
She’s now working as a sales consultant at a bridal shop. It’s not the job in communications that she wants, but it’s a start, and she’s still hunting. Marshall is working for a wine distribution company and dreaming of owning his own business.
"I can see a lot of optimistic growth here" he said. "I want to be a 50-year-in-the-same-house kind of guy, and when I was thinking of the places to do it — it was D-FW."
Open for business
Texas’ business climate of low taxes and a low regulatory burden draws companies and workers, Saving said.
"There is something inherently entrepreneurial about Texas. It’s the nature of the state from its formation, Texas was built by people who were looking to better themselves, and that has continued ever since," he said.
Kotkin says tight business regulation is hurting California. But not Texas. "Whether you are GOP or Democrat, you can’t imagine Texas becoming anti-business," he said.
Seguin Mayor Betty Ann Matthies says that mind-set is part of the reason Caterpillar is building a 850,000-square-feet diesel-engine plant that will employ 1,400 in her town of 25,091 east of San Antonio.
"I think that Texas is known right now for trying to encourage industry to come here," Matthies said.
The city and state’s "willingness to help," along with a location with easy access to interstates and major ports were key factors in Caterpillar’s decision, spokeswoman Kate Kenny said.
"It was a good decision all around, the location, the people, the timing," she said.
An economic refuge
No one argues that the recession hasn’t bruised Texas, too.
But for people like Benton from Clinton Township, Mich., Texas feels like an economic safe zone by comparison.
When Benton, a 45-year-old staff sergeant in the Army National Guard, was notified that he was losing his job as a computer systems operator, he also learned he was going to be redeployed.
He was at Fort Hood in Texas when he was on active duty in the 1990s and he liked it. "People are friendly here," he said.
So he leapt at a chance to be stationed in San Antonio and work as a liaison in the Wounded Warrior program helping injured soldiers. "This is rewarding. I don’t plan on going back to Michigan," he said.
The auto industry’s woes stretch from Michigan into Dayton, Ohio, where Dione Kennedy, 48, was the president and CEO of a theater association. Since January, she’s held the same title at Bass Hall in Fort Worth.
"Things are very tough in Ohio," she said "Dayton is a big GM town, and a lot of industry was built around that and it has been hit hard."
And the real estate market here seemed healthy by comparison.
"Prices for homes in Ohio have been rapidly dropping and in the communities here there was no apparent downturn," Kennedy said.
She and husband Daniel, a stay-at-home dad for their young daughter, have noticed another difference.
"It seems like every time my husband talks to someone in Dayton, it’s another concern about someone about to lose a job or has a lost a job. We don’t hear that here."
The U.S. Census Bureau recently reported that because of the recession, Americans are moving at some of the lowest rates in 50 years.
But Saving, the Fed economist, believes people "will vote with their feet" and keep heading to Texas.
"Moving is costly, and it’s a hassle. It’s not something people want to do . and looking long-term, I think it’s . . unless they see a better opportunity clear that Texas is a favorable place to be from an economic point of view."
'If you had to ride out this downturn, there is no better place than Texas. The declines here have been nothing compared to other states.’
By STEVE CAMPBELL
sfcampbell@star-telegram.com
Across the nation, unemployment is sky-high, the housing market is sucking wind and recessionary fears have frozen Americans in place.
Just don’t tell that to a stream of new residents who are "voting with their feet" that Texas is the safest place to ride out the storm and the place to be when the economy recovers.
Even in the midst of a recession, economists, demographers and relocation experts believe the Lone Star State is on the cusp of becoming The New California.
Or maybe it already is.
For people seeking economic opportunity, Texas is becoming what California has been since the Great Depression, says Los Angeles urbanist and author Joel Kotkin. Texas recently "ran the table" in a recent list of "Best Cities for Jobs" prepared by Kotkin for New Geography and Forbes. Austin, Houston, San Antonio, Fort Worth and Dallas were ranked as the top five large metro areas in the country to find a job. If that weren’t enough to get the moving van loaded, McAllen and Odessa top the mid-sized and small city categories, respectively. Among 333 metropolitan areas, Texas has a remarkable 20 in the top 100.
Relocation surveys show that Texas remains a top destination for people leaving other states. Its automobile registrations continue to climb, and the Texas housing market has avoided the double-digit declines other fast-growing states have seen. While the unemployment rate has risen in Texas, it’s nowhere near as high as most of the country, underscoring the state’s economic resiliency even as the downturn deals out its lumps.
Kotkin, a professor at Chapman University in Orange, Calif., who analyzed U.S. Labor Department statistics for his report, says Texas’ dominance at the top of the jobs list is unprecedented.
"Part of it is a function of the economic collapse of Florida, Phoenix and California. The collapse is still important in Texas, but Texas has had more balanced growth and that’s more sustainable," he said in a telephone interview while navigating an L.A. freeway.
"Part is the nature of Texas: People don’t move there for climate and scenery," Kotkin said. "They move to Texas for jobs and affordable housing. People make economic decisions to go to these places. They don’t go for perfect weather where you can surf one day and ski the next."
Selling "everything but the deer head" and leaving the Detroit area for Texas was simple math for Rodger Benton after Hewlett Packard laid him off.
"It was pretty much a no-brainer to make the move," he said. "The unemployment rate in Michigan is really high. Things are really tough up there. There’s just more opportunity here."
Jobs beget growth
Steve Murdock, who was the Texas state demographer for 25 years and director of the U.S. Census Bureau during the last year of the George W. Bush administration, says jobs attract new residents, and Texas has been driving fast for several years.
"Very few of us say, 'I think I’ll go there because there are not as many " he said. jobs and they pay less,’
Murdock, now a sociology professor at Rice University, says Texas’ growth in the last decade has "been simply phenomenal."
According to the latest Census figures released in March, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington added 146,500 people between July 2007 and July 2008 — more than any metropolitan area in the nation. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown added 130,000 for the No. 2 spot, and Texas had 10 of the top 25 counties with the biggest numerical gains.
Texas has lost jobs in the recession, with the unemployment rate at 6.7 percent in March, the highest mark since January 2004, according to the Texas Workforce Commission.
But that still looks good compared with Michigan (12.6 percent unemployment), Oregon (12.1), South Carolina (11.4), California (11.2) or North Carolina (10.4).
"If you had to ride out this downturn, there is no better place than Texas. The declines here have been nothing compared to other states," said Richard Froeshle, deputy director of Texas Workforce Commission.
Moving out
As the economy has soured, many people are moving to Texas for a new start.
In 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, 14.3 percent of the people leaving the once Golden State were bound for the Lone Star State, according to Relocation.com, which tracks moving trends. Other states with sizable outflows to Texas included Florida (7.9 percent), Illinois (4.7), Michigan (4.6) and New York (4.3).
Another indicator of moving patterns is U-Haul truck rentals.
To rent a 26-foot moving truck today from Los Angeles to Fort Worth would cost $2,141. Renting that truck for a Fort Worth-to-L.A. run would only cost $557. Nearly the same prices apply for moves from Detroit to Fort Worth and vice versa.
That means far more people are moving to Texas than going in the other direction, a U-Haul employee in Fort Worth said.
Julie and William Taylor of Flower Mound made that jump just before California’s housing bubble burst.
Fed up with William’s three-hour round-trip commute and the state’s declining economy, they unloaded their home in Santa Clarita in 2006 after it had doubled 1/2 years."We thought, 'We better do it now while we can.’ I had in value in 3 never even come to Texas, but we knew there were jobs here," said Julie, a stay-at-home mom with two small children. "We knew it was going to be easier for my husband to find a job [in the transportation industry]. And it was true. We feel so blessed to have gotten out when we did."
'The place to go’
Tory Gattis, who runs a software company and writes Houston Strategies, an urban issues blog, is convinced that Texas will be the "focal point" of the nation’s next historic migration trend.
"During the Dust Bowl, during the Great Depression, California was the place to go. Texas is the place to go now," Gattis said. "Sure, we are clearly losing some jobs but people are still moving here. I can see it anecdotally in the license plates around town. I see a lot of Michigan plates, California license plates, I see them from all over."
That’s playing out across the state, according to the Texas Department of Transportation, which tracks motor vehicle registrations.
In 2000, there were 17,962,300 registered vehicles in Texas and that number soared more than 3 million to 21,185,173 by the end of last year, the department reports.
"Vehicle registrations continue to climb by the hundreds of thousands in Texas despite a decline in vehicle sales," department spokeswoman Kim Sue Lia Perkes said. "This may be one indicator that Texas continues to experience a steady stream of transplants from other states despite the national economic downturn."
John McLendon sees the economy where all that rubber meets the road.
No Vacancy signs were the norm at his Oak Creek RV Park near Weatherford for years as migratory workers flocked to the drilling fields of the Barnett Shale, he said. Most of them cleared out late last year, when natural gas prices cratered and companies mothballed rigs.
Now he’s seeing a different trend. People from states hit hard by the recession are coming here in search of jobs. "I’ve seen some from Florida, Utah, Colorado, Montana — they’re from everywhere," McLendon said.
Jo Ann Royer, director of relocations for Williams & Trew real estate, say inquiries about moving to Fort Worth are coming from across the country.
"We’re seeing the whole spectrum of medical industry employees. They are coming from everywhere because the hospitals here are expanding," Royer said. "We’ve had, believe it or not in this economy, banking personnel coming in because there is a new bank on every corner in Fort Worth."
'Zone of sanity’
Jim Gaines, a research economist at Texas A&M University, says that the recession has slowed overall growth but that there are good reasons why people continue to come to Texas.
"Why do people move? Generally, jobs," Gaines said. "Right now, Texas will probably be the only state in the Union that reports more jobs than the year before — by a total of close to 154,000 [in 2008]."Those numbers will be reduced this year. But if you are an entrepreneur or want to start a business, this is the best place to do it because of the pro-business attitude of the state."
Eventually, when distressed housing markets across the country stabilize, Gaines predicts that skittish homeowners will be weighing their options. In those places, "as soon as you can finally sell, you’re going to get the hell out of Dodge," Gaines said.
Jason Saving, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, also believes that Texas has some "fundamental advantages" that are spurring growth, even in a recession.
First is a "very favorable business climate," and second is affordable real estate.
"These things make the state attractive to businesses and residents alike," Saving said. "I think that’s why, if you look at the migration data within the U.S., that you see so many people moving from other states to Texas."
Gattis says Texas’ cost of living is a key to its attractiveness.
"It’s not everything," he said, "but when you have more discretionary income you can buy a better house, a better car, you can spend it at restaurants. That’s income that leads to a better quality of life. "
Texas State Demographer Karl Eschbach says in tough times, people "move to where they think they can survive."
"You might move back home where you have family and a support network, or you move to where you can get a job," Eschbach said. "If I’d left Texas and then lost my job, I would be back in a quarter-second."
Mark Lowther moved fast when that happened to him.
The Texas native was a marketing manager in Seattle for Washington Mutual, the failed savings and loan which was bought by JPMorgan Chase.
His job ended May 1, and he and his wife, Michelle, a disaster contingency consultant, "jumped" at the chance to come to Fort Worth so he could join Southwest Bank as a senior vice president and marketing director.
"The real estate market here is stronger and more affordable," Mather said as movers were unloading the couple’s belongings. "You can buy a comparable house here for close to half the price what you can get on the West Coast."
Kotkin, the L.A. author, says Texas is benefitting by being in what he calls "the zone of sanity," a swath of the nation’s midsection where housing prices stayed stable.
The twin lures of jobs and affordable housing are important to young professionals planning to raise a family or start a business, he said.
That’s what Lance Marshall and Elizabeth Peirce have in mind. The 25-year-old high school sweethearts from North Texas moved to Chicago in 2005 to pursue careers after graduating from college.
Marshall managed a specialty wine store and Peirce worked for a nonprofit and then turned to waiting tables before working as a media coordinator for a fashion boutique.
"I was underemployed and I never stopped looking for a job," Peirce said. "In Chicago, the competition was incredibly fierce and the economy wasn’t very good and then it really declined last year."
When they got engaged, coming back home looked like the safe bet. In February, they moved in with her parents in Grapevine, which has "been fun and mortifying at the same time," she said.
She’s now working as a sales consultant at a bridal shop. It’s not the job in communications that she wants, but it’s a start, and she’s still hunting. Marshall is working for a wine distribution company and dreaming of owning his own business.
"I can see a lot of optimistic growth here" he said. "I want to be a 50-year-in-the-same-house kind of guy, and when I was thinking of the places to do it — it was D-FW."
Open for business
Texas’ business climate of low taxes and a low regulatory burden draws companies and workers, Saving said.
"There is something inherently entrepreneurial about Texas. It’s the nature of the state from its formation, Texas was built by people who were looking to better themselves, and that has continued ever since," he said.
Kotkin says tight business regulation is hurting California. But not Texas. "Whether you are GOP or Democrat, you can’t imagine Texas becoming anti-business," he said.
Seguin Mayor Betty Ann Matthies says that mind-set is part of the reason Caterpillar is building a 850,000-square-feet diesel-engine plant that will employ 1,400 in her town of 25,091 east of San Antonio.
"I think that Texas is known right now for trying to encourage industry to come here," Matthies said.
The city and state’s "willingness to help," along with a location with easy access to interstates and major ports were key factors in Caterpillar’s decision, spokeswoman Kate Kenny said.
"It was a good decision all around, the location, the people, the timing," she said.
An economic refuge
No one argues that the recession hasn’t bruised Texas, too.
But for people like Benton from Clinton Township, Mich., Texas feels like an economic safe zone by comparison.
When Benton, a 45-year-old staff sergeant in the Army National Guard, was notified that he was losing his job as a computer systems operator, he also learned he was going to be redeployed.
He was at Fort Hood in Texas when he was on active duty in the 1990s and he liked it. "People are friendly here," he said.
So he leapt at a chance to be stationed in San Antonio and work as a liaison in the Wounded Warrior program helping injured soldiers. "This is rewarding. I don’t plan on going back to Michigan," he said.
The auto industry’s woes stretch from Michigan into Dayton, Ohio, where Dione Kennedy, 48, was the president and CEO of a theater association. Since January, she’s held the same title at Bass Hall in Fort Worth.
"Things are very tough in Ohio," she said "Dayton is a big GM town, and a lot of industry was built around that and it has been hit hard."
And the real estate market here seemed healthy by comparison.
"Prices for homes in Ohio have been rapidly dropping and in the communities here there was no apparent downturn," Kennedy said.
She and husband Daniel, a stay-at-home dad for their young daughter, have noticed another difference.
"It seems like every time my husband talks to someone in Dayton, it’s another concern about someone about to lose a job or has a lost a job. We don’t hear that here."
The U.S. Census Bureau recently reported that because of the recession, Americans are moving at some of the lowest rates in 50 years.
But Saving, the Fed economist, believes people "will vote with their feet" and keep heading to Texas.
"Moving is costly, and it’s a hassle. It’s not something people want to do . and looking long-term, I think it’s . . unless they see a better opportunity clear that Texas is a favorable place to be from an economic point of view."
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Distressed Properties and First-Time Home Buyers - The Recipe for Real Estate Recovery?
Distressed Properties and First-Time Home Buyers - The Recipe for Real Estate Recovery?
By Mary Ellen Podmolik Print Article
RISMEDIA, May 19, 2009-(MCT)-Value-conscious, first-time buyers have become key to the housing market’s recovery, and they are snapping up priced-right foreclosures despite the warts-and-all, sold-as-is condition of the properties. Half of the sales made in the year’s first quarter were to first-time buyers and almost half of all these sales were distressed properties, the National Association of Realtors reported. Distressed properties include foreclosures and short sales, which are private transactions in which a homeowner sells the property for less than the amount owed on a mortgage.
The glut of foreclosures has pushed down home values, so heightened interest in buying them benefits the immediate neighborhood and the overall housing market.
“It’s a very good first step,” said Lance Ramella, a principal at RW Real Estate Advisors in Oakbrook Terrace. “The first step is selling the most value-conscious units and those are the foreclosures. We’re not going to see any real sustainable price appreciation until we move the foreclosures off the inventory list.”
Moving homes off the foreclosure inventory list may take a while though. With the lapse of several industrywide foreclosure moratoriums, lenders nationwide are initiating foreclosure proceedings again. Government-led efforts to refinance or modify troubled loans can’t help the rising number of people unable to pay their mortgages because they’ve lost their jobs.
In Illinois, more than 7,300 homes became bank-owned during the year’s first quarter, according to RealtyTrac. It’s impossible to determine how many of them are listed for sale, or sold, at any one time because the area’s real estate listing service doesn’t require a property to be listed as a foreclosure.
To capture new interest in home sales thanks to lower interest rates and a first-time-buyer tax credit, a growing number of lenders and asset management companies that own foreclosed homes now appear more willing to drop prices. Banks used to hold fast on pricing and held back properties so they didn’t flood the market, but that has changed, said Susan Sirles Fidler, an agent at Re/Max 10 in Oak Lawn who works with lenders.
Attractive pricing is causing a noticeable increase in multiple offers. In just the past two weeks, a two-bedroom, two-bath Lincoln Park condo listed at $289,000 garnered 60 showings in two days and 20 offers; it sold for just over $330,000. A vandalized East Village penthouse that needed at least $80,000 in repairs was listed at $159,000 and sold for $245,000. In Northbrook, a foreclosed home listed at $719,000 received multiple offers and sold for $730,000.
A bidding battle on a foreclosure with potential “is not the exception,” said Henry Torn, a buyer’s agent at Chicago Realty Partners.
The uptick in interest is encouraging to lenders as well. “That’s what gives us hope,” said Sanjiv Das, chief executive of CitiMortgage. “It’s positive, healthy activity. We’re actively lending to that end of the market, the owner-occupant.”
Finding diamonds in the rough can be a test of stamina, determination and an ability to hold one’s breath. There can be evidence of vandalism, water damage, multicolor mold and squatters who didn’t have access to bathroom facilities because the plumbing fixtures were stolen.
“This is not for the faint of heart,” said Marki Lemons, an agent with Rubloff Residential Properties, who carries a flashlight into properties and keeps paper masks in her car. “You have to be patient, be non-judgmental and have some vision. You have to decide if you can stomach this.”
Others are in decidedly better shape, in part either because companies are offering departing homeowners cash for keys and a clean property or they are sprucing up the properties before they put them on the market.
“These asset managers are at a point where they’re writing checks and trusting the Realtor to get the work done and put it on the market,” said Dean Rouso, owner of Prime Property Partners in La Grange. “We’re helping the neighborhoods because instead of having this comparable property out there for $99,000, we now have a comp for $150,000.”
Not all buyers, however, find themselves on the winning end of foreclosure deals, and that is causing them to look for value in the traditional market.
By Mary Ellen Podmolik Print Article
RISMEDIA, May 19, 2009-(MCT)-Value-conscious, first-time buyers have become key to the housing market’s recovery, and they are snapping up priced-right foreclosures despite the warts-and-all, sold-as-is condition of the properties. Half of the sales made in the year’s first quarter were to first-time buyers and almost half of all these sales were distressed properties, the National Association of Realtors reported. Distressed properties include foreclosures and short sales, which are private transactions in which a homeowner sells the property for less than the amount owed on a mortgage.
The glut of foreclosures has pushed down home values, so heightened interest in buying them benefits the immediate neighborhood and the overall housing market.
“It’s a very good first step,” said Lance Ramella, a principal at RW Real Estate Advisors in Oakbrook Terrace. “The first step is selling the most value-conscious units and those are the foreclosures. We’re not going to see any real sustainable price appreciation until we move the foreclosures off the inventory list.”
Moving homes off the foreclosure inventory list may take a while though. With the lapse of several industrywide foreclosure moratoriums, lenders nationwide are initiating foreclosure proceedings again. Government-led efforts to refinance or modify troubled loans can’t help the rising number of people unable to pay their mortgages because they’ve lost their jobs.
In Illinois, more than 7,300 homes became bank-owned during the year’s first quarter, according to RealtyTrac. It’s impossible to determine how many of them are listed for sale, or sold, at any one time because the area’s real estate listing service doesn’t require a property to be listed as a foreclosure.
To capture new interest in home sales thanks to lower interest rates and a first-time-buyer tax credit, a growing number of lenders and asset management companies that own foreclosed homes now appear more willing to drop prices. Banks used to hold fast on pricing and held back properties so they didn’t flood the market, but that has changed, said Susan Sirles Fidler, an agent at Re/Max 10 in Oak Lawn who works with lenders.
Attractive pricing is causing a noticeable increase in multiple offers. In just the past two weeks, a two-bedroom, two-bath Lincoln Park condo listed at $289,000 garnered 60 showings in two days and 20 offers; it sold for just over $330,000. A vandalized East Village penthouse that needed at least $80,000 in repairs was listed at $159,000 and sold for $245,000. In Northbrook, a foreclosed home listed at $719,000 received multiple offers and sold for $730,000.
A bidding battle on a foreclosure with potential “is not the exception,” said Henry Torn, a buyer’s agent at Chicago Realty Partners.
The uptick in interest is encouraging to lenders as well. “That’s what gives us hope,” said Sanjiv Das, chief executive of CitiMortgage. “It’s positive, healthy activity. We’re actively lending to that end of the market, the owner-occupant.”
Finding diamonds in the rough can be a test of stamina, determination and an ability to hold one’s breath. There can be evidence of vandalism, water damage, multicolor mold and squatters who didn’t have access to bathroom facilities because the plumbing fixtures were stolen.
“This is not for the faint of heart,” said Marki Lemons, an agent with Rubloff Residential Properties, who carries a flashlight into properties and keeps paper masks in her car. “You have to be patient, be non-judgmental and have some vision. You have to decide if you can stomach this.”
Others are in decidedly better shape, in part either because companies are offering departing homeowners cash for keys and a clean property or they are sprucing up the properties before they put them on the market.
“These asset managers are at a point where they’re writing checks and trusting the Realtor to get the work done and put it on the market,” said Dean Rouso, owner of Prime Property Partners in La Grange. “We’re helping the neighborhoods because instead of having this comparable property out there for $99,000, we now have a comp for $150,000.”
Not all buyers, however, find themselves on the winning end of foreclosure deals, and that is causing them to look for value in the traditional market.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
No Wonder the President George Bush moved to Texas! This is a Great State with more room to grow! Watch and see how!
This video shows the growth and opportunity here in Texas. The stats are real and Texas is not only the perfect place to live but the perfect place to have a job. With times as they are we as real estate agents are seeing more and more out of state home buyers who are relocating to either find new jobs or their actual headquarters moved to Texas. That says a lot. We hope you enjoy this video. Click here if you have any questions.
Friday, April 17, 2009
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Helping More Homeowners - Loan Modifications Increasing
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Helping More Homeowners - Loan Modifications Increasing
RISMEDIA, April 17, 2009-Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac modified nearly 24,000 loans during the fourth quarter of 2008, an increase of 76% over the third quarter. The modifications, along with the suspension of foreclosures that began November 26, reduced the number of foreclosures by nearly 27% during the quarter, according to data released by James B. Lockhart, Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), as part of the Foreclosure Prevention Report for the fourth quarter for 2008.
The FHFA report details the actions Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have taken to prevent foreclosures and keep people in their homes. It analyzes data provided by the companies with adjustments to account for the impact of the foreclosure suspension. The suspension, originally set to end Jan. 9, 2009, was later extended to Jan. 31, 2009.
“Fewer homeowners are losing their homes as a result of the foreclosure prevention efforts,” said Director Lockhart. “We expect the numbers of those getting relief to grow further as the Making Home Affordable program picks up speed in coming months.”
The foreclosure prevention options include forbearance plans, payment plans, delinquency advances and loan modifications. Workout options that led to resolution of delinquent accounts, which means the account was either reinstated or removed from the portfolio, increased 15% in the last quarter of 2008.
The report shows that as of Dec. 31, 2008, of the Enterprises’ 30.7 million residential mortgages:
• Modifications represented 34.0% of fourth quarter loss mitigation actions up from 22.2% of the third quarter.
• Completed payment plans represented 19.0% of fourth quarter loss mitigation actions compared to 24.2% of the third quarter.
• Short sales represented 8.9% of fourth quarter loss mitigation actions compared to 7.7% of third quarter.
• Deeds in lieu represented 0.8% of fourth quarter loss mitigation actions compared to 0.7% in the third quarter.
As a result of increased loss mitigation efforts and the foreclosure suspensions, the overall loss mitigation performance ratio (loss mitigation actions as a percentage of mortgages for which foreclosure was likely) for mortgages serviced on behalf of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, increased from 55% during the third quarter of 2008 to 65.7% in the fourth quarter. For prime loans, the ratio increased from 45.1% to 54.2%, and for nonprime loans from 64.7% in the third quarter to 75.3% in the fourth quarter.
Suspensions gave servicers more time to work with borrowers in foreclosure who were eligible for the Streamlined Modification Program introduced in early November 2008. The impact of the suspensions caused December 2008 numbers for completed foreclosure and third-party sales to decline and for total loans, 60-plus, and 90-plus-days delinquent loans to increase.
When adjusted to account for foreclosure suspensions, the month-over-month change in the delinquency rates decreased. The month-over-month change in the 60-plus-days delinquency rate from October 2008 to November 2008 was an increase of 14.39%. The month-over-month change from November 2008 to December 2008 was an increase of 9.31%.
For more information, visit www.fanniemae.com or www.freddiemac.com.
RISMEDIA, April 17, 2009-Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac modified nearly 24,000 loans during the fourth quarter of 2008, an increase of 76% over the third quarter. The modifications, along with the suspension of foreclosures that began November 26, reduced the number of foreclosures by nearly 27% during the quarter, according to data released by James B. Lockhart, Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), as part of the Foreclosure Prevention Report for the fourth quarter for 2008.
The FHFA report details the actions Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have taken to prevent foreclosures and keep people in their homes. It analyzes data provided by the companies with adjustments to account for the impact of the foreclosure suspension. The suspension, originally set to end Jan. 9, 2009, was later extended to Jan. 31, 2009.
“Fewer homeowners are losing their homes as a result of the foreclosure prevention efforts,” said Director Lockhart. “We expect the numbers of those getting relief to grow further as the Making Home Affordable program picks up speed in coming months.”
The foreclosure prevention options include forbearance plans, payment plans, delinquency advances and loan modifications. Workout options that led to resolution of delinquent accounts, which means the account was either reinstated or removed from the portfolio, increased 15% in the last quarter of 2008.
The report shows that as of Dec. 31, 2008, of the Enterprises’ 30.7 million residential mortgages:
• Modifications represented 34.0% of fourth quarter loss mitigation actions up from 22.2% of the third quarter.
• Completed payment plans represented 19.0% of fourth quarter loss mitigation actions compared to 24.2% of the third quarter.
• Short sales represented 8.9% of fourth quarter loss mitigation actions compared to 7.7% of third quarter.
• Deeds in lieu represented 0.8% of fourth quarter loss mitigation actions compared to 0.7% in the third quarter.
As a result of increased loss mitigation efforts and the foreclosure suspensions, the overall loss mitigation performance ratio (loss mitigation actions as a percentage of mortgages for which foreclosure was likely) for mortgages serviced on behalf of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, increased from 55% during the third quarter of 2008 to 65.7% in the fourth quarter. For prime loans, the ratio increased from 45.1% to 54.2%, and for nonprime loans from 64.7% in the third quarter to 75.3% in the fourth quarter.
Suspensions gave servicers more time to work with borrowers in foreclosure who were eligible for the Streamlined Modification Program introduced in early November 2008. The impact of the suspensions caused December 2008 numbers for completed foreclosure and third-party sales to decline and for total loans, 60-plus, and 90-plus-days delinquent loans to increase.
When adjusted to account for foreclosure suspensions, the month-over-month change in the delinquency rates decreased. The month-over-month change in the 60-plus-days delinquency rate from October 2008 to November 2008 was an increase of 14.39%. The month-over-month change from November 2008 to December 2008 was an increase of 9.31%.
For more information, visit www.fanniemae.com or www.freddiemac.com.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Using Technology to Your Advantage - Social Networking Connects Agents with Homebuyers
RISMEDIA, April 9, 2009-Facebook, Twitter and YouTube are among the social networking options used by the real estate industry to connect with consumers who are seeking a combination of technology and human touch. The national meeting of the Real Estate Services Providers Council (RESPRO), a national non-profit trade association of real estate broker-owners, real estate franchisers, mortgage lenders, title insurers and agencies, homebuilders, home service and settlement providers united to deliver cost efficient services to consumers through strategic alliances across the home-buying industry, found leaders sharing new strategies to reach “echo-boomers” heavily using computers to research home sales.
Sherry Chris, president and CEO of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate, said 80% of consumers now use the Internet to research homes and a real estate agent to complete the transaction.
“Tomorrow’s consumer will want to visit sites with as much information as possible.” Chris said. “It will be a combination of the consumer and agent using technology. People are looking for the new opportunity, the new way and help from technology. ”
“[Real estate] companies who [also] have mortgage and title companies are going to be the survivors,” Champion Realty president and CEO Jon Coile said. “The ones who don’t are not.”
For more information, visit http://www.respro.org/.
Sherry Chris, president and CEO of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate, said 80% of consumers now use the Internet to research homes and a real estate agent to complete the transaction.
“Tomorrow’s consumer will want to visit sites with as much information as possible.” Chris said. “It will be a combination of the consumer and agent using technology. People are looking for the new opportunity, the new way and help from technology. ”
“[Real estate] companies who [also] have mortgage and title companies are going to be the survivors,” Champion Realty president and CEO Jon Coile said. “The ones who don’t are not.”
For more information, visit http://www.respro.org/.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Problems With Your Mortgage? - There May be a Short Way Out
Problems With Your Mortgage? - There May be a Short Way Out
With unemployment figures reaching a 25-year high, the toll of the declining economy continues to impact hundreds of thousands of families each month, especially homeowners struggling with their mortgage. According to RealtyTrac, 303,410 foreclosure notices were served on properties in the month of December alone. This followed the 2,854,396 foreclosure filings throughout all of 2008.
For homeowners facing foreclosure, options do exist that can prevent the trauma of losing their home or facing long-term financial loss. YOU Magazine has addressed these options in previous issues. So, this month we'll focus instead on short sales, an alternative to foreclosure for struggling homeowners who do not want to stay in their homes but would also like to avoid the years of potential financial damage that a foreclosure could cause on their credit rating. If you or someone you know are looking for a "short" way out of a mortgage, keep reading and find out if a short sale is a feasible option.
Don't Be Short-Sighted
Before we dive into what a short sale is and how it can benefit some struggling homeowners, it's important to understand that you're not alone, and that just because you're struggling now doesn't mean you won't be able to recover in the near future. In today's tough economy, millions of Americans are facing challenging situations seriously affecting their finances right now that they can, and will, eventually overcome, including lay-offs, divorce, the death of a spouse, or even major losses in the stock market or their retirement investments.
That's why, before choosing to attempt a short sale, it's important to ask yourself if staying in your home is an option you'd like to explore, because there are opportunities, including a loan modification that may be a better path for some struggling homeowners to pursue. A loan modification would allow the homeowner, in many instances, to renegotiate the terms of their existing mortgage(s) to a more affordable monthly payment(s). This can be accomplished in a number of ways that bring about both temporary and permanent solutions but ultimately allow the homeowner to keep their home.
If you think that a change in your mortgage terms, like a lower rate or lower monthly payments, might help you make it through this rough patch, it's important to communicate with your lender, even if you're several months behind in your payments. Many lenders have reported that in over 50% of the cases where a homeowner is delinquent on his or her mortgage, they have been unable to reach the owner to discuss any options. Picking up the phone and placing a call is always in your best interest. More importantly, opening lines of communication with family members, in many cases, could help lighten the emotional burden that often comes along with these challenges.
When Staying is Not a Viable Option
If, however, you think a loan modification would not be appropriate for your individual needs, one solution to avoiding foreclosure could be a short sale. A short sale is an agreement from the lender(s) to allow the homeowner to sell the property for less than what is owed on the mortgage(s). An example would be an agreement to allow a sale of the home to take place for $175,000 when $300,000 is actually owed on the property.
For a lender to consider a short sale, there are a number of factors that the lender will take into consideration before an approval can be secured, including:
Current hardship, which can include a change of income due to job loss, loss of hours or salary reduction, illness, death of a wage earner, or a change in marital status.
The property is "upside down," which means the house is worth less in today's market than what is owed.
It's important to note that, unlike a loan modification, a homeowner does not have to be delinquent to be considered for a short sale. However, a hardship should be demonstrated showing that the homeowner would not be able to remain current on the mortgage in the future due to mounting financial obligations.
Why would a lender agree to sell your home at a loss? Well, in many cases, the foreclosure process results in a loss of up to 40% or more of the original mortgage balance for the lender. When borrowers and lenders work together on a short sale or loan modification, however, these losses can be reduced by roughly half, in many cases. For example, a foreclosure on a $300,000 home could cost the lender up to $120,000 or more in losses, where they might only lose $60,000 by working with the borrower. Add to that the record losses incurred on other foreclosures, and it's clear why lenders, in many cases, prefer to negotiate a solution.
Credit Benefit
Working with a lender to negotiate a short sale instead of a foreclosure can also be more beneficial to your credit as well, especially if you want to secure another mortgage in the near future when your finances are back on track. According to Fannie Mae, one of the largest mortgage insurers in the country, a foreclosure on your credit record will likely mean it will be between 3 and 5 years before you're able to secure a new mortgage. The typical timeframe to buy a new home with a short sale on your record, however, is only two years.
A short sale also has a lesser impact to your FICO score compared to a foreclosure, which is very important for obtaining future credit from everything including automobiles and consumer credit to getting reconnected with local utilities and cell phones services. Your credit score can even affect certain employment opportunities as well.
Start the Process
The first step of a short sale is to contact your lender and seek their assistance.
The second step is to enlist the help of an experienced real estate agent. An agent who is skilled at handling the negotiation process will not only minimize negotiation time, he or she will also help in limiting the time and costs of marketing the property.
Tony Sena, a real estate agent with North American Realty in Las Vegas, Nevada agrees. Sena, who is currently closing 10-15 short sale transactions a month says, "The single greatest reason for a distressed property not selling is selecting the wrong agent."
When selecting an agent, don't be afraid to ask questions about their experience. Sena says to look at the current inventory of listings the agent represents and ask:
How many of the properties are currently short sale properties?
Does the agent have testimonial letters from short sale sellers?
If an agent says they have sold a number of short sale properties, how many of the transactions were listings sold, not just where they had the buyer.
The third step is to price the house properly, according to the market. While many buyers would love to "steal" your property for the lowest price possible, remember that the lender is already going to incur a loss and they are not interested in losing more than they have to. Sena suggests initially pricing the property at the current value and then reducing the asking price every two weeks until it attracts buyers. Then, once you have an offer, the negotiations on the final price can begin with the lender.
The last step is to be prepared for challenges in both the short sale process and in the market place. Remember, you have a lot of competition out there and getting a property sold can be tough, especially in a buyer's market. However, choosing the right agent and setting the right price can assist you in not only selling it more quickly but also in minimizing the friction of having to deal with the lender directly.
Be aware that, in some cases, not all, a lender will agree to a certain price, but only if the seller agrees to accept a promissory note for some amount of the deficiency – that means money that you will be responsible for paying back. In some cases, Sena has seen lenders ask that sellers pay up to $20,000. However, while early last year the interest rate for these notes was in the range of 4% to 8%, lately Sena has seen that lenders have also been extending offers with 0% and terms of repayment up to ten years.
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